An Anatomy of Turkish Foreign Policy: 1995 – 2020, Issue #7: Turkey & USA
Introduction
This study is the seventh bilateral analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP) in the research project titled: “An Anatomy of Turkish Foreign Policy.” Our goal is to quantify TFP’s evolution between 1995 and 2020 through a data-driven account free of speculative remarks. In this analysis, we will focus on the development of Turkey’s bilateral relations with The US. In doing so, we will begin with a quantitative analysis of the relations to provide an overview. Next, we will survey the notable events between the two countries that impacted bilateral relations.
The Data
We use data from the publicly available Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Lab’s Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) event database in the present analysis. We discuss the methodology in Issue #1 of this series.[1] In brief, ICEWS features information on directed dyadic interactions between countries (i.e., Turkey and The US), where each observation includes details of who (source) did what (action) to whom (target), when (time), and where (location). Each interaction is then assigned an intensity score that ranges between -10 and +10 based on the category of the interaction. Negative interaction intensity scores imply conflict, and positive interaction intensity scores indicate cooperation. We calculate monthly and annual averages of the intensity scores to form indices.
Turkey-US Relations: An Overview
How frequently does Turkey interact with The US, and what is the nature of its interactions? In Issue #1, we present a list of Turkey’s top interaction partners among which the US is ranked as the top partner. The data suggests that the interaction frequency between Turkey and The US increased gradually over time. Between January 1st, 1995, and April 30th, 2020; ICEWS features 21,392 observations between Turkey and the US, of which 4469 are unique interactions.[2] The total number of observations corresponds to about eleven and a half percent of Turkey’s total interactions of 186,255. Table 3.1 below compares the summary statistics of Turkey’s directed dyadic interaction intensity scores with The US and the rest of the World.
The summary statistics in Table 3.1 provides a good overview of the overall interactions’ essence. The higher average intensity score of 1.48 between Turkey and The US compared to the 1.34 between Turkey and the World suggests that Turkey’s relations with The US vis-à-vis the World were, on average, slightly more cooperative. This difference can also be qualitatively captured by exploring the shapes of the distributions. Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 below are event intensity score distributions. In both distributions, any value to the left of 0 suggests a conflictual interaction and to the right suggests a cooperative interaction. We also include the results of a simple difference-in-means test in Table 3.2, which indicates a statistically significant difference in the average intensity of interactions towards The US compared to the World.
What was the variation in the frequency of bilateral interactions over time? Figure 3.3 below demonstrates the frequency of both cooperation and conflict initiations by Turkey toward The US by year. It should be noted that this figure does not consider the magnitude of cooperation or conflict. The figure suggests the presence of three phases: pre-2002, 2002 to 2016 and post-2016. The first phase is marked by lower frequencies of conflict and cooperation initiations. The second phase features significantly higher interaction following the elections, which gradually declines over time. The third phase marks a shift in the relations with increasing occurrence of conflict.
The disaggregation of interaction frequency by intensity over time provides further information. Figure 3.4 demonstrates the annual distributions of interactions. The distribution at the bottom displays the values for 1995 and the one at the top for 2020. As always, while 0 marks neutral events, any interactions that are located to the right of 0 are classified as instances of cooperation, and to the left are instances of conflict. The magnitude of interaction intensity increases as it approaches the minimum and maximum values (10 and -10). The figure remains steady and populated with cooperative interactions overall, with some leftward shifts between 2010 and 2016. Figure 3.5 demonstrates the variation in relations during a given government.[3] The intensity and frequency of interactions with The US are at their highest during the 59th, 60th, 65th and 66th governments. The interactions remain low before the 59th, decrease following the 60th and increase following the 65th.
States actively react to signals they receive from their counterparts and adjust their foreign policy towards them. An index can be particularly useful for understanding the overall evolution of the signals in bilateral relations. Our most noteworthy contribution in this report is the index of bilateral relations between Turkey and The US. We present the index in In Figure 3.6.
To draw our overall dyadic relations index, we begin with calculating a simple monthly intensity average of all interactions for a given month. The values of these averages are displayed with the black dots in Figure 3.6. A dot above zero suggests that the interactions for the month were cooperative, and a dot below suggests otherwise. Next, we move on to the trendlines. An upward-pointing trendline suggests an improvement in the bilateral relations and an increase in cooperation, whereas a downward-pointing trendline suggests growing discord. We first focus on the short-term trends and calculate a six-month moving average. This line shows the average intensity scores considering the preceding six months and is displayed with the red line in Figure 3.6. This trendline describes the short-term cascades in which the two countries interact with each other. Finally, we turn to the long-term and fit a non-parametric locally weighted smoothing line among all the monthly averages, which is displayed with the blue line in Figure 3.6. The grey band around the blue line shows the 95% confidence intervals. This line captures the trend in the long-term evolution of bilateral relations between Turkey and The US. Overall, the line suggests a gradual slight but observable decline in the intensity of the cooperation between the two countries. The relations, however, remain amicable despite the fall.
Defining Moment in Turkey-US Relations
What are the momentous events that defined the relations between Turkey and USA? In this section, we focus on the milestones that defined the bilateral relations within the past two and a half decades between the two countries. We use the ICEWS intensity variable for filtering individual milestone interactions. We also provide a timeline of the events in figures 4.1 and 4.2.
Operation Steel, 21 March 1995
The Turkish Armed Forces launched Operation Steel With its thirty-five thousand soldiers against the PKK terrorist organization’s Northern Iraq elements. The operation started on March 21 and ended on May 2. At the end of the operation, the Turkish Armed Forces detained the 568 terrorist members. [Source]
Turkey – US Meeting on Operation Steel, 19 April 1995
President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Tansu Çiller of Turkey met for a press conference before their bilateral meeting. Counterparts discussed the latest situation in Northern Iraq in the scope of Operation Steel. During the press meeting in the White House, President Clinton stated that “The United States has expressed an understanding of what Turkey did.” [Source]
The Kardak Crisis, 25 December 1995 – 30 January 1996
Turkish-flagged cargo ship Figen Akat ran aground on the Kardak Rocks to which both Turkish and Greek rescue teams responded. The jurisdiction dispute between the teams over maritime borders escalated into a greater diplomatic and military crisis over maritime authority. The crisis was resolved under the mediation of the US President Bill Clinton. Following the incident, the Chief of the General Staff of Greece resigned. [Source]
Demirel Joins the Israel-Palestine Peace Summit, 13 March 1996
The United States and Egypt organized the Peace Summit for addressing the tensions between Israel and Palestine and overarching stability in the Middle East. Turkish President Süleyman Demirel joined the summit with the highest representation level. [Source]
Iran Gas Deal with Turkey, 11 August 1996
The Refah Yol Government, under the authority of Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, signed a gas purchase agreement of 10 billion cubic meters per year from Iran. Erbakan met with the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his visit to Iran in the same month. Turkey also decided to buy four million tons of oil from Iran. [Source]
The US Defines the PKK as a Terrorist Organization, 21 January 1997
The US State Department defined the PKK as a foreign terrorist organization and stated that the US was committed to supporting Turkey in combatting terrorism. [Source]
On the Acquirement of F-15 Jets, 24 April 1998
US Secretary of Defense William Cohen paid a visit to Ankara, where he promised to help Turkey for solving the Congressional barrier on arms sales. After Cohen’s Ankara meetings, Cohen set an appointment with Boeing to hold demonstrations and briefings for the Turkish Air Force pertinent to F-15s. [Source]
Ankara Declaration for Energy Cooperation, 30 October 1998
Turkey signed the Ankara Declaration for the Trans-Turkish pipeline deal. The project is defined as an alternative to the Russian and Iranian routes for transporting natural gas resources of the Caspian Sea to international markets. [Source]
Ocalan’s Capture, 17 February 1999
The leader of the terrorist organization PKK was captured in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi, in a joint operation conducted by Turkey’s National Intelligence Service and the Turkish Armed Forces. The CIA’s supported the operation by sharing information with the Turkish authorities. [Source]
Turkey Commits to NATO Efforts In Kosova, 26 April 1999
President Süleyman Demirel participated in the NATO Summit in Washington DC. During the summit, Demirel commented on the Kosova conflict by stating that, “it’s not a border fight in Kosovo, it’s not a fight for interests, it’s a crime against humanity.” He also indicated that conflict resolution in Kosova was vital for the alliance. [Source]
The Aftermath of the Kosova War, 15 July 1999
After Kosova War finished with the effective military intervention of NATO, US Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen visited his counterpart, Turkish Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu in Ankara, to discuss the war’s regional implications. [Source]
The Golcuk Earthquake, 18 August 1999
After the 1999’s Golcuk Earthquake, Clinton sent the US’s Red Cross search and rescue teams to Turkey. The US Chief of Staff Henry Shelton also came to Turkey and stated that the US is ready to provide any military assistance necessary to his counterparts in the Turkish Army. [Source]
Request from the IMF, 17 November 1999
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit held a meeting with the US President Bill Clinton while negotiations were carried out for a 3-year stand-by agreement between Turkey and the IMF. In this meeting, Ecevit stated that the four-billion-dollar aid from the IMF was insufficient for Turkey’s ongoing financial crisis and asked Clinton for his political support to increase the IMF’s aid. [Source]
On Ocalan’s Death Penalty, 13 January 2000
The leaders of the coalition parties assessed the precautionary measure decision of the European Court of Human Rights to postpone the execution of the death sentence for the terrorist organization PKK’s leader. Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit said, “if the postponement process is tried to be used against Turkey, the death penalty will be sent to the Parliament.” US Deputy Secretary of State Marc Grossman stated that it was Turkey’s decision to carry out capital punishment. [Source]
On Strategic Partnership, 10 September 2000
Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and his counterpart the US President Bill Clinton met at the Millennium Forum in New York City. Sezer emphasized that Clinton personally played a role in transforming relations into a strategic partnership. [Source]
Clinton’s Letter to Ecevit, 12 December 2000
The US President Bill Clinton requested Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit not to use its veto power in NATO against new military arrangements or formations under the umbrella of the European Armed Forces and NATO. [Source]
Divergences in Iraq Policy, 6 June 2001
The visit of the US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to Turkey showed the differences in policy choices between Ankara and Washington on Iraq. Despite differences between the two allies, the US officials said the talks were “successful” and that the existing constructive dialogue with Turkey would continue in the defense sector. [Source]
Cooperation in Afghanistan, 26 September 2001
Foreign Minister Ismail Cem visited Washington DC upon the invitation of the US Secretary of State Colin Powell. After the meeting, Ecevit said, “The US is our close friend and ally. But now, we need to establish a closer relationship for the Afghanistan Issue.” [Source]
Coordination on Iraq Policy, 30 November 2001
The US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that Turkey and the US were in full cooperation in Iraq against Saddam Regime. He also added, “Turkey is an example to the whole world.” [Source]
Establishment of High-level Economic Committee, 17 January 2002
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit visited the US President George W. Bush in Washington DC. At the meeting, it was decided to establish a high-level committee to promote the Turkish-American economic partnership. [Source]
Meeting on Iraq Policy, 19 March 2002
US Vice President Dick Cheney introduced US policies towards the Saddam regime to Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and Chief of General Staff General Huseyin Kivrikoglu in Ankara. [Source]
Turkey Agrees to Join the ISAF Command, 2 MAY 2002
Turkey announced its decision to join the command of Afghanistan’s International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) within the UN-mandated peacekeeping force to assist the development and reconstruction of Afghanistan for creating stability in the long term. [Source]
Possible Airforce Deployments in Turkey, 14 January 2003
The US delegation requested to deploy F-117 combat fighters and B-2 bombers in Turkey with the approval of Turkey to be used in a possible Iraq operation. According to the sources, the US authorities carried out assessments at Diyarbakir, Batman, Malatya Erhac, Corlu and Mus airports and in Mersin and Iskenderun ports in addition to the Incirlik Air Base. [Source]
USA Offers $26 Billion for Airbase Use, 21 February 2003
The US offered financial aid totaling six billion dollars in grants and twenty billion dollars in loan guarantees in exchange for securing access to Turkey’s airbases. Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan said, “Turkey would not open its bases to the US troops unless Washington provided written guarantees both on aid and on Turkey’s role in a war.” Discussions on whether Turkey will open its bases to American soldiers continued until the vote in Assembly in March. [Source]
Turkey Rejects The US’ Request, 3 March 2003
Turkish Parliament rejected the motion, which allowed the US troops to use Turkish bases to open a northern front against Iraq. The Justice and Development Party, which had 362 seats in the 550-member Parliament, only managed to secure 264 MPs to support the US deployment. After the rejection of the Turkish Parliament to the bill, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul said, “We all have to respect the decision of the Parliament. This is the requirement of democracy.” In response, the US ambassador to Turkey, Robert Pearson, expressed disappointment in the vote but said the United States would continue its dialogue with the Turkish government. The refusal made it much more challenging to resupply The US forces with ammunition, food and fuel in the Iraq operation. [Source]
The Kirkuk Comment, 26 April 2003
Turkey sent a written and verbal diplomatic note to the US due to the retired US General Garner’s definition of Kirkuk as a “Kurdish city.” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told the US Ambassador Robert Peason that Garner’s definition were inaccurate. [Source]
The Hood Incident in Sulaymaniyah, 4 July 2003
After the US’s invasion of Iraq, eleven Turkish soldiers from Special Forces were detained in Northern Iraq by the US soldiers and put a hood on their heads. [Source]
Applications for the US Loans, 28 July 2003
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul visited the US for requesting loans. Following the meetings, he announced that formal applications will be made for the one billion dollar grant and eight and a half billion dollar loan from the US. [Source]
Erdogan’s First Visit to the US As Prime Minister, 6 December 2003
Erdogan visited the US President Bush in Washington DC for the first time under the title of Prime Minister. The main agenda of the bilateral talks was the fight against terrorism, cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq, Turkey’s full membership process to the European Union and Cyprus issue. [Source]
Turkish Armed Forces Deployment in Afghanistan, 14 January 2004
Nine hundred soldiers of the Turkish Armed Forces were sent from Ankara to command the International Aid and Security Force ISAF-7 in Afghanistan. Chief of General Staff General Hilmi Ozkok said that the Turkish Armed Forces continues to support any initiative contributing to regional and world peace. [Source]
Annan Plan Discussed in White House, 28 January 2004
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with US President George W. Bush at the White House. Erdogan said, “We discussed the steps to be taken concerning the Annan Plan and the necessity of starting the negotiation process immediately.” President Bush also announced that he had designated Secretary of State Powell for the Cyprus issue. [Source]
Suicide Attack to US President Bush Impeded, 4 May 2004
Sixteen alleged Al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Al-Islamic Organization members who were preparing to commit a suicide attack against US President George W. Bush at the NATO Summit to be held in Istanbul on June 28-29 were arrested in Bursa. [Source]
On the Importance of NATO Alliance, 28 July 2004
President Ahmet Necdet Sezer hosted a dinner at Dolmabahce Palace for the heads of state and governments who came to Istanbul before the NATO Summit. In his speech before the dinner, he said that “The NATO Alliance is essential in terms of sharing security and stability.” [Source]
The US Supports to Turkey’s EU Candidacy, 29 July 2004
During his visit to Turkey, US President George W. Bush said, “Getting Turkey into the European Union will prove that Europe is not a club of one religion.” Bush also stated that Turkey is a strong democracy and its accession process to the EU should be supported. [Source]
Turkey’s Position on Kirkuk, 6 February 2015
The US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice came to Turkey to meet Prime Minister Erdogan. Prime Minister Erdogan reiterated that Kirkuk should not be placed under the control of any ethnic group. He stated that “Kirkuk should remain in a special status.” [Source]
Head of the Grand National Assembly to Visit Washington DC, 26 May 2005
Head of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Bulent Arinc, visited Washington DC at the invitation of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Dennis Hastert. Arinc met separately with representatives of the Jewish community and officials of the Assembly of Turkish-American Associations (ATAA). [Source]
Bush congratulates Erdogan on the EU Accession Process, 8 October 2005
In a phone call with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the US President George W. Bush congratulated Turkey on starting negotiations with the EU. [Source]
Initiation of the Turkey – US Energy Dialogue, 7 February 2006
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Hilmi Guler visited Washington DC at the invitation of US Energy Minister Samuel Bodman. Guler said it was decided to establish a stable energy dialogue between the two countries. [Source]
Erdogan Visits Bush in the Framework of Strategic Partnership, 2 October 2006
President Bush welcomed Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to enhance the strategic partnership between the United States and Turkey and to discuss increased cooperation in the War on Terror, including countering the PKK, as well as, advancing freedom in Lebanon, Iraq, and the broader Middle East. Turkey’s improvements in political and economic reforms and the US support for Turkey’s accession to the European Union were also part of the discussion agenda. [Source]
Turkey Becomes F-35 Program Partner, 26 January 2007
Minister of National Defense Vecdi Gonul signed the memorandum of understanding in Washington DC, which officially integrated Turkey’s participation in the production phase of the new generation fighter aircraft F-35. In addition to Turkey, the UK, Italy, Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Canada and Norway were also included in the program as producer partners. It is planned that Turkey will purchase 100 F-35 fighter jets in the next 20 years. Undersecretary of Defense Industries Murad Bayar said, “With this project, we are taking one more step in meeting the future warplane needs of the Turkish Air Force.” [Source]
Babacan’s CFR Meeting, 23 March 2007
Council on Foreign Relations invited Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Babacan to Washington DC. Babacan pointed out the similarities in foreign policy preferences toward regional and global issues between US and Turkey. [Source]
USA’s Support for Turkey’s Counterterrorism, 19 September 2007
In a statement, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns voiced the US’s support for Turkey’s counterterrorism efforts against the PKK. [Source]
Turkey’s PKK Criticism to the US, 19 October 2007
Turkey repeated its criticism of the US for failing to crack down on the PKK terrorists based in Iraq. Turkish officials warned the US that if the US and Iraqi forces did not take the necessary actions on the terrorist organization, Turkey would take action. [Source]
On a Potential Counterterrorism Operation Against the PKK, 6 November 2007
Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan met with his counterpart the US President Bush in the White House. After the meeting, Bush stated that the PKK was a terrorist organization and a common enemy. President Bush also said intelligence sharing between the Turkish and American armed forces against the PKK is crucial to combat terrorism effectively. Erdogan stated that a potential military operation by Turkish armed forces in Iraq would not harm civilians. [Source]
President Bush Meets with President Gul of Turkey, 8 January 2008
Turkey’s President Gul visited the US President Bush in the White House to discuss regional geopolitics. Sides declared the importance of the strategic partnership framework of the bilateral ties. President Bush said, “Turkey is a strategic partner of the United States, and relations between the United States and Turkey are essential for our country.” [Source]
Cross-Border Operation Against PKK Elements in Northern Iraq, 28 February 2008
The Turkish Armed Forces launched a cross-border ground operation against the PKK terrorist organization in Northern Iraq with the support of the Turkish Air Force. Two hundred forty terrorist organization members were neutralized, and twenty-seven Turkish soldiers were lost. Turkey’s Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul repeated Ankara’s assurances that Turkish soldiers would withdraw from Iraq after the operation reached its target. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Ankara must undertake political and economic steps to isolate the PKK rather than military action. [Source]
Real-Time Intelligence Support to Turkey’s Counterterrorism Operations In Iraq, 24 March 2008
In a meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan, the US Vice President Dick Cheney said “the steps you take to fight the PKK should not contribute to political instability in Iraq.” On the other hand, Cheney reiterated that the “real-time intelligence support” given by the US to the Turkish Armed Forces against the PKK will continue. [Source]
Endorsement of Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East, 19 June 2008
Foreign Minister and Chief Negotiator Ali Babacan held talks with Vice President Dick Cheney, Foreign Minister Condoleezza Rice, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and Energy Minister Samuel Wright Bodman in Washington DC. Rice said about Turkey by pointing to Babacan, “We’ve had excellent relations with Turkey on the Middle East Policy. I also believe that the AKP’s democratization agenda has been good for Turkey.” [Source]
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan Met US’s National Security Advisor, 17 July 2008
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan received the US President George W. Bush’s National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley. The meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was closed to the press. Hadley reiterated that Turkey and the US are working together in the fight against terrorism, particularly the PKK, which is a common enemy for both countries. He also emphasized that the US strongly supports Turkey’s EU membership. [Source]
Obama’s Election, 13 November 2008
Prime Minister Erdogan congratulated the President Obama and said that he believes ties between the United States and Turkey, which are established on friendship, alliance and partnership, will be deepened under the newly elected President of the United States. He also stated that Turkey’s collaboration with the US based on “common values such as a market economy,” could be improved more in the new period. [Source]
The Tripartite Joint Command Center in Erbil, 23 January 2009
Sides decided to deepen the collaboration on the Turkey-Iraq-US mechanism on cooperation in the military and intelligence field. In this context, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari stated that a joint command center representing the tripartite cooperation mechanism is planned to be established in Erbil. [Source]
Clinton’s Ankara Visit, 6 March 2009
The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Anitkabir after meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan. “I am honored to visit this great country once again,” Clinton said after the meeting. Official sources reported that, in addition to the bilateral ties between the two friendly and allied countries, important regional and global issues, particularly the Palestinian Question, Iraq, Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism, were discussed in detail. [Source]
Obama’s First Foreign Visit to Turkey, 7 April 2009
In hist first official visit to Turkey, the US President Obama visited Anitkabir in Ankara and then met President Abdullah Gul. Later, Obama met Speaker of Parliament Koksal Toptan and opposition leaders in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and addressed the General Assembly of the Assembly. [Source]
Turkey’s Diplomatic Support to Iran’s Nuclear Deal, 7 December 2009
A meeting between delegations took place between Prime Minister Erdogan and the US President Obama in Washington DC. The US President noted, “Turkey is ready to do everything to achieve a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue.” The US President also reminded that Turkey and the US have a “commitment to defend each other as NATO allies.” [Source]
Turkey’s Efforts In Dialogue With Iran, 14 February 2010
Prime Minister Erdogan met the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Qatar where she discussed the role of Turkey in tightening sanctions on Iran. During the meeting, the sides agreed that tensions in the region would increase if Turkey’s efforts for dialogue with Iran failed. [Source]
Threat to Armenian Citizens Living in Turkey, 16 March 2010
In an interview with BBC Turkish in London, Prime Minister Erdogan argued that he could deport hundred thousands of Armenian citizens living in Turkey if necessary, due to the Armenian bills planned to be discussed in the foreign countries’ parliament. [Source]
On Normalizing Ties between Turkey and Armenia, 13 April 2010
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met US President Barack Obama in Washington DC for the Nuclear Security Summit. According to the White House statement, Obama called on Turkey and Armenia to “advance the process of normalizing relations” after he met Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. [Source]
Iran Signs a Nuclear Deal with Turkey and Brazil, 17 May 2010
After negotiations between the leaders of Iran, Turkey and Brazil, the parties reached an agreement to enrich their uranium abroad. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that 1200 kg of low-enriched uranium would be sent to Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel which could be used in research reactors. [Source]
On Turkey’s Support to Middle East Peace Process, 24 September 2010
Foreign Minister Davutoglu met US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the UN Security Council Presidency Office. Clinton explained the latest situation in the Middle East peace process to his counterpart and stated that they expected Turkey’s ongoing support in the peace process. [Source]
Turkey – USA Partnership Against Terrorism, 16 July 2011
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and President Abdullah Gul met US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Istanbul. After the meetings, Davutoglu said both sides emphasized using Turkey-US relations in solidarity against terrorism. Clinton also visited business communities and interest groups in Turkey. [Source]
Turning Point in Turkey-Syria Relations, 9 August 2011
Prime Minister Erdogan said about Syria: “Now it’s time to give the final warning.” The government spokesperson Bulent Arinc stated to the Assad regime that the loss of life in Syria should be stopped and democratic reform demands should be met. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu went to Syria to formally convey these messages to Syrian President Bashar Assad. [Source]
On Combatting Terrorism, 21 September 2011
Erdogan sent a list of demands to the US in the fight against the terrorist organization PKK. After the attacks of the PKK terrorist organization in September, Obama said, “These events remind us that terrorism exists in many parts of the world. Turkey and the United States will be strong partners in preventing terrorism.” [Source]
Exchange Agreement between Liaison Officers, May 2011
A Memorandum of Understanding on Turkish Land Forces Liaison Officers and the US Land Forces Liaison Officers was signed between the Turkish General Staff and the US Department of Defense. Within the framework of the agreement, exchange programs were initiated between the liaison officers of the two armies. [Source]
Biden’s Visit, 2 December 2011
The US Vice President Biden met President Abdullah Gul in Istanbul. During his visit to President Gul, he talked about the US assistance to Turkey in the fighting against the terrorist organization PKK. In general, Turkey’s efforts to mediate the dispute about Iran’s nuclear program and the tensions in relations with Israel were discussed at the meeting. [Source]
Obama’s CNN Interview, 20 January 2012
Obama gave an interview to Journalist Fareed Zakaria where he named five leaders, including Turkey’s PM Erdogan, as his trustable friends. [Source]
Joint Press Conference between US and Turkey on Syria, 14 February 2012
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held a joint press conference with the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington. Davutoglu said, “Violence is increasing in Syria. We are not in a position to wait anymore. We cannot stand by and watch people being bombed. A humanitarian initiative needs to be started,” he said. [Source]
CIA Director’s Unexpected Visit to Turkey, 13 March 2012
CIA Director David Petraeus met Prime Minister Erdogan for the first time. Then Petraeus was hosted by Undersecretary Hakan Fidan at the National Intelligence Organization. In particular, the sides discussed cooperation between the intelligence services of the two countries could be improved in the fight against the PKK terrorist organization. At the regional level, political developments in Iraq, particularly in Syria, were also part of the talks. At the international level, Iran’s nuclear program and Afghanistan were on the top of the agenda. [Source]
The US – Turkey Cooperation on Syria, 11 August 2012
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. Clinton announced that “We shared our notes between the American and Turkish teams and wanted to create a common operational picture,” Clinton said. He added, “We have considered measures such as the creation of no-fly zones or buffer zones to assist the Syrian rebels.” [Source]
The Akcakale Attack, 3 October 2012
Five people died from artillery shells fired from the Tel Abyad district of Raqqa, Syria, falling on Akcakale. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton stated they would give all the necessary support to Turkey at the UN and NATO. [Source]
US Secretary of Defense at Incirlik Airbase, 14 December 2012
The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta met the 39th Wing Command officials stationed at the 10th Tanker Base Command in Adana. Panetta announced that he signed the resolution that included the deployment of two patriot systems to Turkey, as well as the sending of 400 soldiers to Turkey for this mission. [Source]
NATO Supplies Patriot Batteries Along the Syria Border, 8 January 2013
Four hundred US service members participated in the deployment operation of Patriot anti-missile batteries along the Syrian border in line with the NATO resolution. NATO announced that Germany, the Netherlands and the US offered to deploy two Patriot batteries each to Turkey. Germany deployed its batteries to Kahramanmaras, the Netherlands deployed its batteries to Adana, and the US deployed its batteries to Gaziantep. The deployment operation took two weeks. [Source]
DHKP-C Attack on the US Embassy in Ankara, 1 February 2013
The terrorist organization DHKP-C carried out a suicide attack at the entrance of the US Embassy in Ankara. Two embassy personnel were killed in the attack. [Source]
Kerry’s Visit, 1 March 2013
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met US Secretary of State John Kerry. Davutoglu said our bilateral relations were at an excellent level. The ties of our President and Prime Minister with President Obama are based on close and frequent consultation. Kerry also told that the US stands by its NATO ally Turkey in its fight against all forms of terrorism, namely Al-Qaeda on the one hand and the PKK and all other terrorist organizations on the other. [Source]
Second Visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to Davutoglu, 7 April 2013
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met the US Secretary of State John Kerry in Istanbul for a second time. During the meeting, bilateral relations and the latest developments in the context of Palestine, Syria, Iraq and Cyprus were discussed. Foreign Minister Davutoglu said, “We agreed on the need to hold a Friends of the Syrian People core group meeting as soon as possible.” [Source]
The G20 Meeting, 6 September 2013
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met US President Barack Obama in St. Petersburg to discuss the economic and political issues of the G20. [Source]
The US Extended the Deployment of its Patriot Systems, 18 November 2013
Defense officials said the United States extended its commitment of two Patriot missile batteries to guard Turkey’s Syria Border Airspace for possible air attacks on Monday. [Source]
Erdogan’s Meeting Kerry, 12 September 2014
President Erdogan and the US State Secretary Kerry met in Ankara. The determination of Turkey and the US to fight against all terrorist organizations in the region was emphasized at the meeting. Within this framework, the two countries agreed on intelligence sharing, logistical support to the Syrian opposition and support for humanitarian aid. [Source]
Biden Apologizes to Erdogan, 4 October 2014
The US Vice President Biden stated that Turkey and other Sunni allies, while trying to overthrow Syrian leader Bashar Assad, transferred significant amounts of money and weapons to the opposition during a speech at Harvard University. Biden said, “we couldn’t convince our allies to cut aid to the opposition groups in Syria.” Following Biden’s remarks, President Erdogan voiced his protest regarding the truthfulness of the allegations. Later Turkish Presidential sources announced that the US Vice President Biden called President Erdogan and apologized. At the same time, Biden’s spokesperson told Hurriyet Newspaper that Biden admires Erdogan. [Source]
The US Vice President Second Visit to Turkey, 11 November 2014
During the meeting, sides discussed the security issues, especially the ISIS threat. In the joint press statement held after the meeting, Erdogan stated that the international community on Syria was not effective enough to ensure stability and peace. [Source]
The Signing of the Turkey and USA Training & Equip Program for the Opposition Groups in Syria, 19 February 2015
A training and equipment program agreement for the Syrian opposition was signed between Turkey and the US. Turkey’s Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Feridun Sinirlioglu said, “we see the agreement as just the first step, we still have a lot of work to do (with the US). There are very chaotic situations in our neighboring geography and in other different parts of the world. Therefore, we believe that we will make a difference when we work together.” Parallel to Sinirlioglu’s statements, the US’s Ankara Ambassador Bass thanked everyone who brought the agreement to the signature. [Source]
Davutoglu’s Visit to New York, 4 March 2015
Prime Minister Davutoglu met Goldman Sachs Direct Investors in New York. Davutoglu drew attention to the success of the government in the last 12 years. In line with this, he stated that Turkey is an “island of stability.” Prime Minister also received TPI Composites CEO Steve Lockard and Pepsico CEO Indra Nooyi within the scope of his New York visit. [Source]
On the Usage of Incirlik Air Base Against ISIS, 15 March 2015
The United States and Turkey agreed that bomb-carrying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would take off from Incirlik Air Base and strike ISIS targets. [Source]
Obama Does not Define the Armenian Issue as Genocide, 22 April 2015
During Obama’s Presidential campaign in 2008, Obama promised that he would recognize the Armenian issue as genocide. Despite this, the White House issued a carefully worded statement on the administration meeting with Armenian groups, in which the US officially avoided using the term “genocide.” [Source]
Turkey Opposes to the Annexation of Crimea, 13 May 2015
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the annexation of Crimea could not be accepted during the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Antalya. [Source]
Incirlik Air Base Opens to the Coalition Forces, 23 July 2015
Turkey agreed with the US and coalition forces on opening Incirlik Air Base to use the US and coalition forces to combat ISIS. “Access to Turkish bases such as the Incirlik Air Base will increase the operational effectiveness of the coalition in its efforts to fight ISIS, including air strikes” the US official said. [Source]
Additional US Air Forces Joined Incirlik Airbase, 9 August 2015
The US Air Forces sent their F-16 fighters to the Incirlik base to combat ISIS by joining the coalition forces. Similarly, it was announced that approximately three hundred US army personnel would serve at the Incirlik Air Base. Before opening the Incirlik base to coalition forces, the US air forces were hitting ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq from bases in Jordan and Kuwait. Turkish Air Forces also joined US-led coalition against the Islamic State group in Syria. [Source]
The US President Urges Turkey to Focus on Russia, 2 December 2015
Turkey shot down a Russian warplane SU-24 fighter on the Syria border due to Turkish Air Space border disputes. Putin described the incident as a “stab in the back” committed by the “accomplices of terrorists.” Subsequently, Russia imposed sanctions related on joint economic projects, restricting financial transactions, and changing customs duties on Turkey over the downed fighter jet. The US President Obama defended Turkey’s right to defend its airspace one week after incident. He also called for unity in fighting jihadi militants. [Source]
Biden Visits Turkey After the Terrorist Attacks, 23 Januruary 2016
President Erdogan received the US Vice President Biden at Yildiz Palace. During the meeting, bilateral relations as well as regional issues, particularly relating to Syria and Iraq, were discussed. The US Vice President Biden said that they stand by Turkey in the fight against terrorism. He also emphasized that they see the PKK as a terrorist organization. [Source]
The US Did Not Define PYD as a Terrorist Organization, 10 February 2016
In a press briefing, the US State Department Spokesman John Kirby stated that the US does not define the PYD as a terrorist organization. President Erdogan responded against the statement, “How many times have we told you? Are you with us or are you with these terrorist organizations PYD or YPG?” [Source]
Turkey – USA Tension over YPG, 22 April 2016
According to local allegations, the US Special Forces brandished YPG emblems on their shoulders. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that The US is “two-faced” for refusing to call the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia as terrorists. The US Army Colonel Steve Warren told reporters “corrective action has been taken and we have communicated as much to our military partners and our military allies in the region.” [Source]
Turkey Accused the US For the Coup Attempt, 18 July 2016
Turkish Labor Minister Suleyman Soylu said, “America is behind the coup,” after three days following the incident. Secretary of State John Kerry denied the accusations. [Source]
Biden Visits Turkey Following the Coup Attempt, 14 August 2016
The US Vice President Joe Biden met Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who was the first high-ranking US official to visit Ankara since the failed coup. Biden said, “I regret that I did not come to Turkey sooner.” [Source]
The Astana Process, 23 January 2017
Turkey, Russia, and Iran met at Astana regarding the Syria conflict. They decided to act together to strengthen the political process rather than military interventions to provide solutions in the region. [Source]
Turkey – Russia Rapprochement, 3 May 2017
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his counterpart Vladimir Putin met in Sochi and discussed many issues spanning from the Syria conflict to bolstering trade relations. Both leaders reached a consensus on seeking a political solution for the Syrian civil war. After the meeting, Putin said that “The recovery process in Russian-Turkish ties is complete.” [Source]
Turkey’s Demands Remain Unfulfilled, 17 May 2017
The US President Trump met President Erdogan for the first time. During the meeting, the decision to arm the YPG and the extradition of FETO’s leader was discussed. Turkey’s demands were not fulfilled. [Source]
S-400 Deal Announced, 27 September 2017
President Erdogan announced Turkey sent down the payment to Moscow for the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. [Source]
Visa Tension over the Arrest of US Consulate Employee, 9 October 2017
A US Consulate General employee in Istanbul was arrested due to affiliations with the FETO. Subsequently, the US Embassy suspended visas issued to Turkish citizens. Turkey also suspended visa and e-visa applications for US citizens. [Source]
Turkish Stream Project Deal, 11 October 2017
Turkish President Erdogan and his counterpart President Putin met in Istanbul for the 23rd Energy Summit, where both countries’ energy ministers reached an agreement on implementing the Turkish Stream project. The Turkish Stream pipeline is expected to send thirty billion cubic meters of gas a year under the Black Sea to Turkey. [Source]
The Sarraf Case, 16 November 2017
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that they sent two diplomatic notes about Riza Sarraf to the United States. Cavusoglu stated that they wanted information about the Sarraf case. Deputy Prime Minister and Government Spokesperson Bekir Bozdag said, “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has received information about the good health of Riza Sarraf.” [Source]
The S-400 Deal, 27 December 2017
Turkey’s Undersecretariat for Defense Industries signed an agreement to purchase S-400 anti-ballistic missile systems’ batteries. The Head of the Russian state conglomerate Rostec said the cost of the S-400 system was two and a half billion dollars. [Source]
On the Afrin Operation, 19 January 2018
US State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert spoke about Ankara’s preparations for an operation in Afrin. In his statement, Nauert said, “We invite Turkey to avoid a step in this direction. (…) Everyone should focus on fighting DAESH; therefore, we want Turks to focus on DAESH instead of resorting to violence.” [Source]
The Negotiations for Patriot Systems, 27 March 2018
Volkan Bozkir, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, said a new evaluation would be made about Turkey acquiring Patriot defense missiles from the US even as an agreement regarding the purchase of S-400s from Russia has been signed. Bozkir said, “a US delegation is coming to present an attractive offer,” and stated that Turkey will evaluate the offer according to the conditions. [Source]
On Turkey’s Suspension from the F-35 Program, 25 May 2018
The US House of Representatives passed the $716 billion National Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets the framework for annual defense policies. In the House of Representatives version of the bill, the Minister of Defense was requested to prepare a report on the state of relations with Turkey, which started to suspension process of Turkish companies from the F-35 warplanes program. [Source]
Turkey Receives Its First F-35 in Texas, 21 July 2018
A ceremony was held at Lockheed Martin facilities in Fort Worth, Texas, USA, to deliver the first aircraft within the scope of the F-35 Project, in which Turkey was a partner. Officials indicated that Turkish pilots will start training with the F-35 at the end of the month. [Source]
The Andrew Brunson Crisis, 1 August 2018
Turkey detained Pastor Andrew Brunson for two years on charges of spying and aiding terrorist organizations in Izmir. The US administration asked Brunson to be released. The US announced that the Trump administration will impose sanctions on Turkey in the case that their demands are not met. President Erdogan stated that Turkey would not accept such threats. [Source]
US Imposes Sanctions to Two Ministers, 2 August 2018
The White House announced that the US sanctioned Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and Minister of Interior Suleyman Soylu for the detention of US Pastor Andrew Brunson. The US Vice President Mike Pence stated that the sanctions would continue until Brunson is released. [Source]
The US Imposes Sanctions on Turkey’s Steel and Aluminum Industry, 11 August 2018
The US President Trump approved a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum purchased from Turkey. A statement released by the White House with the signature of US President Trump stated that the increase in customs duty on steel purchased from Turkey came into effect on Monday, August 13. [Source]
Turkey Releases Andrew Brunson, 13 October 2018
Turkey released pastor Andrew Brunson despite being sentenced to three years in prison. Brunson returned to the US with a private plane hosted by US President Trump at the White House. Trump thanked President Erdogan. He said Brunson’s release was a “great step” for his relations with Turkey. [Source]
Trump Intends to Pullout US Troops from Syria, 23 December 2018
President Trump tweeted “I just had a long and productive call with the President of Turkey. We discussed ISIS, our mutual involvement in Syria, and the slow and highly coordinated pullout of The US troops from the area. After many years they are coming home. We also discussed heavily expanded trade.” [Source]
Turkey – US Conversation for the Manbij, 21 January 2019
In a phone call with US President Trump, President Erdogan said that Turkey is ready to take over the security of YPG governed Manbij. [Source]
Turkish Court Does Not Release US Consulate Employee, 28 March 2019
Turkish Court decided to continue the detention of the US Consulate General in Istanbul, who was accused of being affiliated with FETO. [Source]
Turkey Releases a Detained US Citizen, 30 May 2019
A NASA scientist accused of affiliation with FETO was released after three years in detention. The release decision came hours after a phone conversation between The US President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan. [Source]
An Operation Center for Safe Zone in Northern Syria, 7 August 2019
Turkey and the US agreed to establish a joint operations center to coordinate and manage a safe zone in northern Syria. The joint statement indicated that the safe zone “would provide a “peace corridor”. The statement did not define how and when the zone would be created. “We expect our US friends to behave in a spirit of alliance and spirit of strategic partnership,” Akar stated. [Source]
Operation Peace Spring, 9 – 17 October 2019
The Turkish Armed Forces conducted a cross-border operation named Operation Peace Spring into Northern Syria against Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian Army. [Source]
Agreement between Turkey and US After Operation Peace Spring, 18 October 2019
An agreement was signed with the US and Turkey after the Turkish Armed Force’s Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria. As a result of the deal, sides decided to suspend the Peace Spring Operation for 120 hours. In response, YPG forces withdrew from the safe zone. Turkey and the US also renewed their intention to continue their fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria. The US has also agreed to stop and not impose new sanctions on Turkey. [Source]
Rapprochement between US and Turkey, 14 January 2019
Turkish President Erdogan and US President Trump held a joint press conference at the White House. President Erdogan said, “we are determined to open a new page in our relations with the US in line with our deep-rooted alliance.” The parties renewed their commitment to the agreement they made in October. [Source]
Retaliation over the Armenian Issue, 16 December 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned the United States over the closing of Kurecik and Incirlik Air Base due to the US Senate’s decision on the Armenian Issue. [Source]
Bloomberg’s Allegation, 20 February 2020
Bloomberg News Agency published news by citing a senior Turkish official in Ankara, stating that Turkey has asked the United States to install two Patriot batteries. Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar, in a statement to CNNTurk television, emphasized that the USA can provide Patriots. When allegations appeared in the media, Russia controlled the Idlib airspace. [Source]
Idlib Airstrike, 27 February 2020
The Russian Air Force and Syrian Air Force conducted airstrikes against a Turkish army convoy in Balyun, Idlib Governorate. According to the Turkish Presidency, the airstrike resulted in thirty-four Turkish soldier casualties. [Source]
Unexpected Visit of James Jeffrey to Ankara, 2 March 2020
The Permanent Representative of the US to the United Nations, Craft, and the Special Envoy for Syria, Jeffrey, came to Turkey. The delegation planned to meet with Turkish officials in Ankara, where the main agenda of the discussion was the humanitarian crisis due to the regime’s attacks in Syria. [Source]
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[1] Lautenschlager, Jennifer, Steve Shellman, and Michael Ward. 2015. “ICEWS Event Aggregations.” Harvard Dataverse V3.
[2] Notable events are captured by multiple news agencies leading to repetitions in the dataset.
[3] There are fifteen governments in our timeframe. The terms of these governments are as follows: the 52th Government of Turkey, October 30th, 1995, to March 6th, 1996; the 53th Government of Turkey, March 6th, 1996, to June 28th, 1996; the 54th Government of Turkey, June 28th, 1996, to June 30th, 1997; the 55th Government of Turkey, June 30th, 1997, to January 11th, 1999; the 56th Government of Turkey, January 11th, 1999, to May 28th, 1999; the 57th Government of Turkey, May 28th, 1999, to November 18th, 2002; the 58th Government of Turkey, November 19th, 2002, to March 12th, 2003; the 59th Government of Turkey, March 14th, 2003, to August 29th, 2007; the 60th Government of Turkey, August 29th, 2007, to July 6th, 2011; the 61th Government of Turkey, July 6th, 2011, to August 29th, 2014; the 62th Government of Turkey, August 29th, 2014, to August 28th, 2015; the 63th Government of Turkey, August 28th, 2015, to November 24th, 2015; the 64th Government of Turkey, November 24th, 2015, to May 24th, 2016; the 65th Government of Turkey, May 24th, 2016, to July 9th, 2018; the 66th Government of Turkey, July 10th, 2018 which is ongoing. We include the data for the 51st Government as part of the 52nd Government given its short term.